Economically Speaking - Part 1

There has been a lot going on lately and for the benefit of my and hopefully you, I'm going to get my thoughts down. It's like bumper cars in my brain right now and I hope to get this sh..tuff more organized. Almost daily, something new will come to the foreground command my attention. I wake and wonder what I will unintentionally focus on today. Will it be: trade wars, war wars, unemployment, interest rates, inflation, the yield curve, quantitative easing, GDP growth, cryptocurrency being wacky....you get the picture.

In no particular order, here are my own opinions on the things we have been hearing. As always, from an Uninformed Investors point of view.

I've decided to make this a multi part post. It would be too long to put it all here and I did not use my time wisely and the things I wrote about earnings pertain to events today [4/16] that should be posted today. So, Part 1!


Yield Curve

The spread between the short term and the long term yields are thinning. At this point it isn't any cause for concern, more so just something I'm keeping in the back of my mind. Why is this important? Every recession has been preceded by a negative spread between the 10 year treasury and 2 year treasury yields. The average time is about 18 months, or a year an a half.